Looking at the causes of such radical change of capital flow direction, we can name three processes that constituted the "physical" basis of the current crisis. Firstly, it is the departure of international investors from Russia as well as from all developing markets. Although this trend is often somewhat overestimated, withdrawal of portfolio investment comprised $ 9.5 bn. within three months (with a peak in September). It is rather dramatic development when about one third of all investment made in the last eight years leave the country, but the other two thirds are still left, or were still left as for the end of September.
The other direction in which the money flows out it repayment of earlier loans by banks. For instance, in September, banks spent 7.6 bn. to repay their foreign loans.
The third and most significant channel is the move by banks that are transferring funds to foreign accounts in order to hedge monetary risks in times when ruble is weakening, and to reserve their funds to settle with creditors.
Unlike banking, non-finance economy sector shows far smaller capital outflow. Direct international investment in the real economy sector was still in surplus at $ 12.2 bn. (although less than the year's first half which showed 39 bn.).
In September, international payment of Russia's real sector comprised about 7 to 8 bn., which must have been to heavy a burden for many companies. And as the real sector is vastly relying on loans, it is logical to expect that it will soon be stricken by capital outflow that now affects mainly finance sector. It is just a question of time. Some estimates show that banks will have to pay $ 15.4 bn. in this year's fourth quarter, while other companies' payment will comprise as much as 24 bn.
