“CAPP’s 2010 Crude Oil Forecast reaffirms the trend of continued long term production growth in Canada,” said Greg Stringham, vice-president of markets and oil sands at Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). “While the economic downturn in 2009 saw many projects deferred, a stabilizing investment climate, more robust commodity prices and market demand for Canadian crude have provided the foundation for several projects to return to active development.”
CAPP’s 2009 forecast projected some oil sands projects would be deferred rather than cancelled. Project decisions since that time have largely confirmed this projection. CAPP’s 2010 forecast exhibits a rate of growth consistent with last year’s forecast. In 2010, the economic climate has recovered somewhat and some companies are now actively developing phases of their projects previously placed on hold. The pull back of capital spending last year had a limited impact on production growth over the short term, as companies that had already invested in the process continued to move forward. While not yet having a material impact on CAPP’s production outlook there is an emerging expectation that new technologies being implemented in challenging conventional oil reservoirs, such as horizontal multi-stage fracturing, will enable more of these reserves to be produced.
“Canada’s oil and gas industry continues to develop and implement new technologies to better address the challenges of producing oil from more difficult reserves and continuing to reduce environmental impacts,” said Stringham. The forecast is based on an annual survey of producers conducted by CAPP to determine planned production of crude oil through 2025. CAPP used this data along with other inputs from producer companies to prepare its annual forecast and illustrate production growth.
