The country's largest oil field compensated for oil output decline in depleted fields in Aktobe and Kyzylorda regions, according to the National Energy Report-2017, presented on September 7, 2017, at the annual Kazenergy Eurasian Forum, Kazinform reports.
According to the document prepared by IHS Markit, in 2016, oil production in Kazakhstan declined for the 3rd year in a row.
It is noted that the production declined mainly in the fields that are in the late stages of development, primarily in Aktobe and Kyzylorda regions.
However, the experts note that starting late 2016 the overall output started to grow due to the increase in production at Kashagan which has been put back into operation.
It is also noted that although in 2017 oil production in Kazakhstan may to some extent be limited due the framework of the agreement to cut it in order to prevent prices going down, the current situation with 2 of the country's 3 «mega» projects lays the foundation for sustainable growth.
Thus, due to the expansion of production capacities at Kashagan, the overall output should increase by 80,000 barrels per day, which will allow reaching the planned stable production rate of the 1st stage of about 17 million tons per year (370,000 barrels per day), while the decision to start expanding capacities of the Tengiz oil field creates the prerequisites for an increase in production of 12 million tons per year (260,000 barrels per day) in the early 2020s.
It is reported that due to the downward revision of the investment forecasts and also taking into account the current low oil prices, IHS Markit experts adjusted (also downward) the baseline scenarios of oil production and export volumes for Kazakhstan until 2040.
Nevertheless, oil production in Kazakhstan is expected to grow in the long term, and the country shall retain its positions as the 2nd largest oil producer and exporter in the CIS.