Due to the oil price rally, Russia expects its oil and gas revenues to jump fivefold compared to the expected revenues set in its 2018 budget, according to the Finance Ministry that now expects Russia to post a budget surplus for the 1st time since 2011.
Oil and gas exports account for around 40 % of Russia’s federal budget revenues. Russia’s revenues from oil and gas sales are now expected at $44.4 billion (2.74 trillion Russian rubles) for 2018, up from $8.5 billion (527.6 billion rubles), according to a budget amendment by the Finance Ministry.
Due to the unexpectedly high oil prices, Russia is currently on track to book a 1st budget surplus since 2011, at 0.45 % of gross domestic product (GDP), compared to previous expectations for a 1.3 % of GDP deficit.
The previous forecasts, however, were based on assumptions that the Urals crude blend would average around $40 a barrel. Between January and April, the price of Urals has averaged $66.15.
The additional oil revenues that Russia has earned above the Urals price assumption of $40 a barrel will be allocated to reserves instead of to spending, TASS reports.
Analysts commented on the proposed budget amendment that Russia will have more revenues while it continues to plan for expenditures close to the original budget law. «This will provide a very useful cushion to lean on if there are some adverse macro or geopolitical shocks,» Ivan Tchakarov, chief economist at Citi in Moscow, told Reuters.
A few days ago, President Vladimir Putin was quoted as saying that Russia was mulling over ways to ‘get free’ of the U.S. dollar burden in oil trade as part of a plan to boost its national economic sovereignty.
«Oil is traded in dollars on the exchange,» TASS quoted Putin as saying. «Certainly, we are thinking about what we need to do in order to get free of this burden.»