Oil demand from China's transportation sector will peak in 2030, the International Energy Agency said in its latest World Energy Outlook, PLatts reported on November 13, 2017.
Oil will still remain the backbone of China's transport fuel demand till 2030, growing by 3.3% per year on average, but its share will fall to just above 3 quarters, from nearly 90% today, the IEA said.
The remaining 25% of transport fuels will be biofuels, natural gas and electricity.
The IEA said that China would become the world's largest oil consumer by the early 2030s, overtaking the US, and touch 15.5 million b/d in 2040.
The slowdown in China's oil demand growth post 2030 comes primarily from a decline in gasoline use from passenger cars, offsetting healthy diesel use from freight trucks, kerosene use in aviation and heavy fuel oil use in shipping.
The decline in gasoline demand is in turn driven by 3 major factors - plateauing of the passenger car fleet size, greater fuel efficiency and the rise of electric vehicles.
Today's level of car ownership in the US is around 700 cars per 1,000 people, while in China it is just below 120 cars per 1,000 people.
This is projected to rise to around 375 cars per 1,000 people in 2040.
China has also been trying to cut oil demand growth from road transport by implementing fuel-economy standards for heavy-duty commercial vehicles.
These have been in place since mid-2012, making it 1 of 5 countries to have such standards, the other countries are Canada, India, Japan and the US.
To read the news in Russian.