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16

The main tendencies in international economy development in 2002-2003.

Experts at the United Nations have prepared the new report regarding the "World Economy in 2002", in which they have declared there to be a spasmodic rising trend with decelerated economic growth rates, the report states that the present slow down was not fast and simultaneous, such as the last one.

Experts at the United Nations have prepared the new report regarding the "World Economy in 2002", in which they have declared there to be a spasmodic rising trend with decelerated economic growth rates, the report states that the present slow down was not fast and simultaneous, such as the last one. In 2001 the total rise in global output was a low 1.3%, in 2002 this figure will reach only 1.75%. The authors of the report suggest a rise in the growth rate of 3.25% in 2003, however this is still below the 4 percent growth that was attained in the year 2000.

The economic growth rates in the economies of the developing countries during 2002 will be rather moderate. At the end of the year the gain of the total production is expected to be 3.25%, while the average annual rate during the nineteen nineties was a healthy 5 percent. The vast majority of developing countries will not be able to reach higher rates that were attained before the present recession, however a sharp rise is expected in India.

Gross national product growth on the African continent during 2002 is likely to be around 3%, it is noteworthy here thought hat this only exceed the population growth figures by approximately 1.5%.

The authors of the report call on national governments to execute the arrangements that was achieved at the WTO Conference earlier in the year and also at the on the Monterey Summit, the arrangements were devoted to the maintenance of stable development throughout the global economy.

GNP growth rates in the EMDC's during the present and next year is predicted to be around 1.25% and 2.75% respectively, this compares to the lowly one percent that was achieved in 2001. However these forecasts may prove overly optimistic due to the continuing fall in the value of the dollar on the international money markets and also the instability of international trade between several large economies(here are you referring to the trade wars?).

The authors of the report pay great attention to the danger of an increasing dependence on the US economy, which is now seen widely as acting as an engine to the global economy. The report suggests that the national government should try with great endeavour to reduce this apparent dependence on the largest economy in the world. They say that the development of a multi polar global business system would maintain present growth rates whilst simultaneously steadying economic growth rates in the medium and long term.


The level of dependence on the economy of the USA is shown clearly throughout the report, which states that the American share of international imports has grown by four and a half percentage points over past years, from fourteen percent in 1995 to 18.5 percent in the year 2000. Likewise the share of total exports flowing from the developing nations to the US has grew from twenty two to twenty eight percent over the last decade. In clear connection to this the sharp fall in the US economic growth levels have had a large impact on international economic growth through the huge change caused by it in the country's balance of trade account.











Author: Galina Arsenchuk