Pending decrease of the world prices for petroleum the Government of the Russian Federation tries to predict stability of incomes for federal and regional budgets and searches for ways of disposal of raw dependence. The most serious problem, which remains today before the government of the Russian Federation is development of the plan in case of falling of the world prices for petroleum. The government of the Russian Federation will predict reduction of incomes from realization of raw goods on the world market when planning the budget for 2004. As incomes connected to fuel and energy complex are essential for budgets of all levels, it is necessary to consider risks in case of falling of the world prices for petroleum to determine borders of stability of incomes of the federal budget. The government of the Russian Federation in the long-term program defines the main thesis ? diversification of the industries, economy, definition of ways of development of processing complex, support of high technologies and reduction of dependence on fuel and energy complex.
In the preliminary edition of project of the Program of social and economic development of the Russian Federation for 2003-2005 priorities are given to tax reform for stimulation of investment activity and outstripping reduction of tax loading on processing branches. The tax system, which during the last two year interferes with accelerated diversification of economy - in its sufficient measures on stimulation of investment activity are not stipulated, and general tax loading is higher on the processing sectors of economy, than on raw branches. The project of the program provides stimulation of export of not raw goods and services and optimization of fiscal loading on raw sector.
Share of energy sector in the Russian export to the last year has made 54 %, the enterprises of this complex have provided one third of tax receipts. Representatives of petroleum industry with support of Minister of energy, Igor Yusufov, have tried to convince the last week Michael Kasjanov, that it is necessary for the country to increase export of petroleum and to build new oil pipelines. Premiere has demanded from the companies to accept Energy strategy till 2020 and has advised oilmen to commensurate their plans of extraction with calculations of the state. As he said, the question on construction of new export oil pipelines should be solved within the framework of preparing Power strategists, and rates of growth of oil recovery should be determined by the state.
In March the government will consider the questions of export of petroleum and gas to China and countries of Asian - Pacific region, and in April the prospect of northwest direction (expansion of the Baltic pipeline system and construction of Murmansk). The basic decision under the plan of construction at once of two pipelines from Angarsk to Chinese Datsin 30 million tons and Russian Nahodka with 50 million tons capacity yet is not accepted. Now it is decided only, that the second turn of Baltic pipeline system (BTS) will be increased on 30 million tons of petroleum per year. The decision of the government should be made this month. Now BTS can pump over 12 million tons annually. One more project, which does not cause doubt, is integration of pipelines "Druzhba" and "Adria". The countries - participants of the project already have signed the appropriate agreements.
The present condition of the world petroleum market is characterized by fear of uncertainty in deliveries and prices for petroleum. Meanwhile petroleum sector has come to the stage of rest. Last years were the period of active struggle for place under the sun - the companies increased industrial volumes at any cost. Today oilmen pass from expansion stages to quiet work on increase of profitableness of made investments. As an example of this can serve British BP. After several years of industrial expansion the company is tired from growth. Today, apparently, BP is aimed at realization of internal reorganization. As a result of growth of the market offer of oil on the part of transnational petroleum giants is not expected.
Hopes of international analysts are entirely connected to increase of deliveries from the countries of the former USSR. The Russian companies are justifying expectations - last years extraction of Russian companies grew 8 % each year. It is expected, that in 2003-2004 rates of annual growth will make about 6 %. According to calculations of analysts of the company "Renaissance Capital ", cumulative stocks of raw material of five largest Russian petroleum companies add up to 44 billion barrels, and by 2007 petroleum export of Russia will reach 7 million barrels per day.
Author: Nana Bendukidze
