September 24 marked the end of the steepest world stock market collapse in the last 60 years. So far it is nothing more than an adjustment, with investors shifting the entire burden of the Western economic crisis on to oil producing countries. Witness yesterday's collapse of oil prices, which followed the rise in the cost of stock. There is no reason to believe that oil is going to appreciate because the world's three biggest economies - the United States, Europe, and Japan - may simultaneously go into a recession within the next few months.
All of this bodes ill for Russia, whose well-being is largely based on high oil prices. Apart from a worsening of the balance of payments, it also implies budget problems. The $23.50 per barrel price built into the 2002 budget now seems too optimistic. Moreover, the danger of a global recession looming in the offing will induce oil market players to speculate for a fall. And then all that was gained in the last few years - a balanced budget, a strong ruble, timely and full foreign debt payments - will go to rack and ruin
Neftegaz.ru
