When in September Kukura was kidnapped, " the Independent newspaper " wrote, that if LUKOIL?s vice-president is released after some time without any demands and under mysterious circumstances, then all oil industry could face the series of kidnappings. This prediction has become true.
December 2nd in Georgia the father of LUKOIL?s vice-president, and December 5 in Aphasia - mother of Slavneft?s vice-president were kidnapped. Oil companies, vice-presidents? these are not coincidences. Kidnappings were made at the moment, when the companies were facing important events. On Monday the part of state owned shares of LUKOIL was placed on the London stock exchange. Slavneft prepares for auction on sale of the state owned shares, which can pull on $2,3-3 billion.
Analytics do not want to recognize obvious concurrences. They see only the crime taking place and don?t want to comment. But the crime has already become an integral or even a determining part of what they usually comment.
The version about kidnappings for the sake of repayment should be left aside. Somehow too deliberately incidents are of the same kind.
Other version - those who stand behind the kidnappings, using such criminal strategy try to sell at low cost the petroleum companies. Really, at the beginning of this week decent package of LUKOIL?s shares was on sale, and its market cost has gone downwards, especially after the information on kidnapping of the father of the company vice-president.
The sale of state owned 75 % of Slavneft shares is planned December 18. Naturally, the assumption arises, that ill-intentioned applicants in both cases would be interested to bring down the price at any cost.
But criminal actions themselves do not reduce the price of the companies. Cost falls because investors are afraid that criminals by means of kidnappings press on top-management so that they accept business - decisions contradicting the interests of the company. This potential ability of criminal attacks to influence decisions of the largest petroleum concerns during preparation for the major bargains most of all and frightens investors. Moreover, it is necessary to recognize this circuit as the most probable version explaining an improbable abundance of concurrences. The general version is: those who stand behind kidnappings demand from management of the companies to make certain decisions connected to preparation for sale.
If it goes like that, by December 18 we will get new criminal news. Or, for example, kidnappings will acquire cross character - figurants for certain know, who stands for whom or for what.
The set of concurrences, however, pushes into more generalized forecasts. Everybody knows criminalization of Russian business. However there never been so many alike crimes adhered to business before. Probably, criminals use the same method to make clearly understand that this is the means of business - pressure, but not just crime.
Or this is a new stage in development of the Russian petroleum branch, or even attack on Russian oil industry as a whole. LUKOIL and Slavneft are the largest petroleum companies representing for foreign partners the whole Russian oil industry. Global changes on the market caused by instability on the Near East, has resulted in growing interest to the Russian petroleum branch in the Western Europe, USA, Central Asia. Now is planned joint investment and trading projects, which in the long term could result in even bigger changes of structure and geography of petroleum market with a long-awaited entrance of Russia to new territories. Probably someone who nowadays determines the condition on the global petroleum markets didn?t like that. That?s why in Caucasus began kidnappings, which at necessary moment frighten off investors from leaders of the Russian petroleum industry.
The version of business - pressure explaining motives of crimes, can coexist with the geopolitics version aimed at discrediting the Russian oil industry. In any case law or enforcement bodies, especially in the neighboring states, can?t control the circuit of concurrences, which is obviously a system of pressure. It is obvious, that it?s high time for the management of petroleum companies to make certain consolidated decisions and actions if they do not want to become object of the constant criminal attacks leading to failure of Russian oil business. Probable implication of the recent criminal events is intended at threatening the national safety of the country. And this is already the matter not one only of oil tycoons.
Author: Sergei Zanin
